San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU Cougars (8-4, Independent) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (9-3, 7-1 MWC)
Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego California, 8pm EST on ESPN
Coaching: Bronco Mendenhall vs. Rocky Long
I happen to be a fan of both coaches. Mendenhall seems to care about the bowl games as his team has won 4 of their last 5 bowl games including the last three. Rocky Long has been a solid coach for many a year now and lost his last bowl game a year ago in New Orleans against ULL. I really like Rocky Long with time to prepare for an opposing offense. He has a brilliant defensive mind when it comes to stopping the run. I am going to call the coaching a wash .. no advantage either way. Incidentally, Bronco Mendenhall used to work for Rocky Long so there is a connection there.
Motivational Edges:
*SDSU won a share of the MWC title game this year. A poinsettia Bowl win would culminate the season, give them a 10 win season and perhaps go down in history as the best Aztec team of all-time. The Aztecs have only gone to 7 bowl games in their history and are 2-5 in those games, one of which was the Poinsettia Bowl in 2010. This team could be highly motivated for that.
*We already touched on the coaching history between Rocky Long and Bronco Mendenhall. I have little clue as to which staff would be motivated more by this.
*There is some program motivational angles as well regarding leaving the MWC but it is again too hard to read the situation to think it will either have an effect on the game or if it does to what degree. I would think little.
*I really see little motivation for the BYU side other than the Defense perhaps meeting a goal of finishing in the top ten of total defense.
I have to give the motivational advantages to SDSU in this game.
Conference/Strength of Schedule/Current Form
San Diego State played in the MWC in what I would consider a down season for the conference. They did however go into Boise Idaho and win on the blue turf against Boise State and that shows me something. The Aztecs played against 6 bowl teams and went 3-3 in those ball games with wins over the aforementioned Boise State, Air Force and Nevada. Their three losses were to Washington, SJSU and Fresno State. Of note is that the three losses were relatively early in the year and the three wins were in their final 5 games. They have won their last 7 games of the year and are in great form.
BYU is an independent but played a much tougher schedule in my estimation than did SDSU. The Cougars played 6 bowl teams this year and went 2-4 in those games with wins over Georgia Tech and Utah State and losses to Notre Dame, Boise State, Oregon State and SJSU. Of note is that they lost by just a FG to Notre Dame in a game they could have won, by 1 to Boise State in a game they could have won and just 6 to SJSU as well. BYU has really been competitive in about every game they have played because of their outstanding defense. I find their schedule a notch harder than that of SDSU. The Cougars current form is not nearly as good as that of the Aztecs, however. They have gone 3-3 in their last 6 games and the lone quality win was a destruction of Georgia Tech where they completely shut down the option attack.
I will give the slightest of edges to SDSU here based on current form but with the knowledge that BYU is better battle tested.
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Location: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego California, 8pm EST on ESPN
Coaching: Bronco Mendenhall vs. Rocky Long
I happen to be a fan of both coaches. Mendenhall seems to care about the bowl games as his team has won 4 of their last 5 bowl games including the last three. Rocky Long has been a solid coach for many a year now and lost his last bowl game a year ago in New Orleans against ULL. I really like Rocky Long with time to prepare for an opposing offense. He has a brilliant defensive mind when it comes to stopping the run. I am going to call the coaching a wash .. no advantage either way. Incidentally, Bronco Mendenhall used to work for Rocky Long so there is a connection there.
Motivational Edges:
*SDSU won a share of the MWC title game this year. A poinsettia Bowl win would culminate the season, give them a 10 win season and perhaps go down in history as the best Aztec team of all-time. The Aztecs have only gone to 7 bowl games in their history and are 2-5 in those games, one of which was the Poinsettia Bowl in 2010. This team could be highly motivated for that.
*We already touched on the coaching history between Rocky Long and Bronco Mendenhall. I have little clue as to which staff would be motivated more by this.
*There is some program motivational angles as well regarding leaving the MWC but it is again too hard to read the situation to think it will either have an effect on the game or if it does to what degree. I would think little.
*I really see little motivation for the BYU side other than the Defense perhaps meeting a goal of finishing in the top ten of total defense.
I have to give the motivational advantages to SDSU in this game.
Conference/Strength of Schedule/Current Form
San Diego State played in the MWC in what I would consider a down season for the conference. They did however go into Boise Idaho and win on the blue turf against Boise State and that shows me something. The Aztecs played against 6 bowl teams and went 3-3 in those ball games with wins over the aforementioned Boise State, Air Force and Nevada. Their three losses were to Washington, SJSU and Fresno State. Of note is that the three losses were relatively early in the year and the three wins were in their final 5 games. They have won their last 7 games of the year and are in great form.
BYU is an independent but played a much tougher schedule in my estimation than did SDSU. The Cougars played 6 bowl teams this year and went 2-4 in those games with wins over Georgia Tech and Utah State and losses to Notre Dame, Boise State, Oregon State and SJSU. Of note is that they lost by just a FG to Notre Dame in a game they could have won, by 1 to Boise State in a game they could have won and just 6 to SJSU as well. BYU has really been competitive in about every game they have played because of their outstanding defense. I find their schedule a notch harder than that of SDSU. The Cougars current form is not nearly as good as that of the Aztecs, however. They have gone 3-3 in their last 6 games and the lone quality win was a destruction of Georgia Tech where they completely shut down the option attack.
I will give the slightest of edges to SDSU here based on current form but with the knowledge that BYU is better battle tested.
For more on this game, and a detailed analysis of each of the remaining 31 bowl games, become a subscriber today at http://www.gameanalysts.com/ and follow along on Twitter @Game_Analysts for up-to-date info, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Halves and much more.
We've picked a winning play in each of the first 2 Bowl Games, and our subscribers have made nearly 19 units since September 1. Thanks for making GameAnalysts.com one of your stops for sports handicapping information and Happy Holidays!
